Mental Models For Founders: Backward Reasoning

Start with goals and look for the initial conditions that form a path to them.

I always try to start out with some type of goal. Then I work backward and think of what I need to do to get there, and give myself smaller goals that are more immediate.

— Kristi Yamaguchi

For someone with entrepreneurship blood, this ‘begin with the end in mind’ model might be rooted in the reasoning process: If I want D and A, B, C lead to D, what should I do now to get A, B and C?

However, sometimes a D is not simply a D but a moving D. We are reasoning backwards to find the path not only to the goals but also to the moving goals.

For example, you can’t build a product a little bit better than what other players are offering now and expect customers to switch when you launch next year.

You will want to see the market of the future to build competitive solutions and processes that help you thrive in the next few years.

The concept is similar to the way NASA approach a moving target: ‘You should focus on where your target will be, not where your target is.’ They calculated where the moving stone would be and worked backwards to find where the spaceship should be heading.

Originally published at https://thirstyminds.space/backward-reasoning-mental-model/